It's hard to tell if this is Triangle or a Head and Shoulders bottom formation. Either way we now have clear boundaries to watch for a break-out. The strength last week in the face of potentially damaging fall-out from the Fonterra (one of NZ's biggest exporters) China milk contamination scare was quite impressive and left the shorts scrambling to cover.
The momentum slowed a little towards the end of the week as the Kiwi approached the upper end of this formation.
A close above the 81.00 cent level would be an invitation to go long with a target of around 85.80.
Of course the other alternative is a resumption of the recent downtrend, and a close below 76.50 would suggest a move to the low 70's near 72.00 cents.
The patient will wait for a breakout either way. I stress though a New York close outside the levels mentioned is needed. The Kiwi and Aussie have a history of making daytime breaks before closing back inside formations.
11/08/2013
Copyright 2013
